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For context, the firm uses a proprietary US cycle indicator as a benchmark for when a downturn is imminent. Based on their research, Morgan Stanley thinks the end of the bull market has a strong chance of happening sometime in 2018. Here's a deep dive into each: Extreme leverage build-up Morgan Stanley points out that previous comparable cycles have been derailed by steep increases in a measure of US debt to gross domestic product. While the firm doesn't see conditions as dire as they were around the Great Depression or the most recent financial crisis, it notes that deleveraging has stalled. While this situation may be sustainable in the near-term, since interest rates are still locked near zero, that could soon change with the Federal Reserve signaling multiple rate hikes by the end of 2018. Morgan Stanley also notes that interest coverage — or the ability to service debt — has been declining for both US investment-grade and junk debt since 2015. Exuberant sentiment This next driver is one that was briefly addressed in the introduction: investor overconfidence. The thinking here is that when the market gets too cocky, it becomes blind to potential risks and therefore more susceptible to downward shocks. Morgan Stanley doesn't think the market is too exuberant quite yet. While one measure shows that expectations around the economy have gotten overly optimistic, it's still lower than where it was during the last financial crisis or the dotcom bubble. Still, the chart below shows that US consumer confidence is the highest it's been since 2000, including a precipitous surge since the start of the bull market in 2009. Excessive policy tightening When Morgan Stanley says that cycle downturns follow prolonged periods of monetary policy tightening, it speaks from experience.

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Tyrion gives a signal and Bronn fires a flaming arrow that ignites a massive explosion, decimating Stannis’ forces. Davos watches as the blast incinerates his son, Matthos (Kerr Logan), before being blown away himself. Tyrion orders the Hound to lead a “welcome party” that includes Lancel to meet the Baratheon troops head on. Lancel quickly retreats inside after getting injured and even the Hound balks when a Baratheon soldier engulfed in flames charges at him. Fueled by his lifelong fear of fire, the Hound proceeds to oh-so-eloquently informs Tyrion and Joffrey that he has no intention of continuing to fight, or ever serving them again for that matter. Cersei gets drunk and torments Sansa by describing what Stannis’ soldiers will do to her if the city’s defenses fail. Lancel arrives to update Cersei on the battle and she sends him back out to retrieve Joffrey from the battlements, a proposal that Joffrey eagerly accepts. Moments later, Ser Mandon Moore (James Doran) of the Kingsguard turns on Tyrion and slashes him across the face with his sword. But before Ser Mandon can finish the job, Tyrion’s squire, Podrick Payne (Daniel Portman), runs him through with a spear. He offers to take her north to Winterfell, but she refuses. As she raises the bottle to his mouth, Tywin bursts into the throne room and declares that the Lannisters — along with the Tyrells, with whom Tywin formed an alliance — have won. To add insult to injury, he has also been relocated to a small, dumpy room in the Red Keep.


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So when a farmer suffers a mortgage foreclosure or a devastating hailstorm, that’s clearly wrong. The studio demanded changes and, even after he complied, it took the film away from him. Then he was critically skewered for the film the studio released under his name. His most recent appearance at the Comedy Cellar was announced beforehand, and the list of performers doing sets that night was long and filled with notable names. McCrea pointed out that doing so would yet again put the responsibility to right wrongs on the backs of women rather than the men who have done wrong. But both seemed disappointed that the comedians weren't collectively taking a stand. There are plenty of stages and plenty of microphones. And really, that's where all of this money (and all this power) we're talking about originates: in the hands of the comedy consumer. I’ve written for publications including The New Yorker, USA Today, Vulture, Br. Louis CK: laughter ends as years of allegations dog comedy superstar. Louis CK was dubbed America’s conscience before the allegations emerged. He had a five-minute slot but only two minutes of material.


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He was menacing, intimidating, vicious and so much more. The former refers to characters such as Loki, Vision and Gamora. For this movie not to lose credibility, these characters, in my opinion, must remain dead. I expect these characters to come back at some point during the next Avengers film, most likely due to the originals saving them. On the ship with Stark and Spidey, Strange said that if it came to it he would save his stone over Stark and Spideys lives. However, in the end we see Strange give up the stone to Thanos on the condition Stark stay alive. My prediction is that when Strange saw all the possible futures, the only future in which they win must heavily rely on Tony Stark. Which makes sense, Tony started it all so he should finish it. The emotional roller coaster that begins right at the beginning of the movie to the very end has you feeling more and more frustrated and on edge as it goes on. Dont get me wrong this movie is absolutely stunning and amazing and a cliffhanger at the end has you wanting more and more. Part by part is interesting to watch, some of scene make me shock some scene make me wanna punch people so bad. He not just normal villain to kill bunch of people because he love but his motivation so clear why he wanna do that and most people know he is collecting all the infinity stones.


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And Jon is suffering through PTSD, while Sansa already got partly over hers. We could learn that she’s been back since shortly after those events the whole time by way of flashback visions. If it weren’t for a few things he did rashly (if he had thought about them, his super understanding of how people tick would have kept him from doing them), one would have to wonder why he hasn’t conquered Planetos by now. Sansa used it in reference to getting out of the “frey” and LF used it to get into the “frey”. Littlefinger uses fast travel a lot (a joke obviously) Like VegoDread said, it’s a fantasy show, what do you expect. Anyways, I am curious on what “The Door” means for next episode. I wasn’t expecting a white walker vision already, I think we will get another vision in Winterfell with the young Starks first before the White Walker vision. I assume she did it early enough for it to soak in. I thought they might have just had the view from farther away and not as long. Whoever loses the Kingsmoot will be ordered to take the fleet to Meereen to bring Dany back. Boom large ass army that loves their queen, a queen that can somewhat control her dragons now, with hundreds of ships coming, can’t wait, she will leave this season. I’ve never seen how this story could end satisfactorily.


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In this movie the characters are boring, while the book is full of character development. The book contained so many beautiful and captivating scenes; even some of the preachy Aslan scenes were amazing. Despite the fact that I identify as an atheist and a feminist, I love the works of C. S. Lewis, and The Voyage of the Dawn Treader was my second favorite Narnia book (The Last Battle was my favorite). The book was rich and deep, but the movie was insipid. Eustace was insufferable and infuriating in the book, and it was such a relief to see him change, he was pointless and boring in the movie. The Narnia series (and all of Lewis's work) has great dialogue and interplay between characters. Like Prince Caspian, all of that was gone in this movie. The book was devoid of battles, this movie had pointless battles. Two key characters, Gumpas (the villainous Governor of the Lone Islands) and Ramandu (the retired star) were missing. There was no central villain in the book; the movie added an unintimidating Green Mist as the villain.


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Bravo, who made a fighting hundred in the first Test, was left frustrated by short-pitched deliveries from Riaz and Amir before getting out. 1w), Holder 12-4-29-0, Chase 20-5-47-1, Bishoo 21-3-77-4 WEST INDIES first innings K. Khan gets place Hafeez dropped from Test squad LAHORE, Pakistan, Oct 31, (AFP): Pakistan Monday left out experienced but out-of-form opener Mohammad Hafeez from the 16-man squad for the two-match Test series in New Zealand next month. The 36-year-old had a wretched time on the team s England tour this summer, scraping together 102 runs in three Tests before being axed for the final match. He also failed in the three-day side game against West Indies in Sharjah earlier this month, falling for zero and nine which also kept him out of the ongoing three-match series against the same opponents. Chief selector Inzamam-ul-Haq told AFP Hafeez must clear his bowling action. Hafeez s bowling action was reported in November 2014 for the first time and again in June 2015, leading to a 12-month ban from bowling at international level. His place went to 27-year-old lefthander Sharjeel Khan, who has played 20 one-day internationals and 15 Twenty20s but has yet to experience the five-day format. The squad has five fast bowlers in Mohammad Amir, Wahab Riaz, Sohail Khan, Rahat Ali and Imran Khan with Yasir Shah and Mohammad Nawaz as two spinners. Left-arm spinner Zulfiqar Babar, playing in the ongoing third Test against West Indies in Sharjah, failed to land a place in the New Zealand trip. The first Test starts in Christchurch from Nov 17 followed by the second in Hamilton from Nov 25. After New Zealand Pakistan fly to Australia, where they play three Tests and five one-day internationals.


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By meeting Sam, Arya also recognizes a Night's Watch deserter (Sam's companion) who spends a good deal of time with her Braavosi friends. At first, she plans to ask him to take her back to the Wall with him so she can reunite with Jon, but Dareon announces that he plans to make a life for himself in Braavos. Arya kills him, and since he never harmed her - she excuses the deed by claiming that he broke his vows; she ignores the fact that they are out of Westeros, and that she dissociated herself from her past - thus she has no right to kill the deserter. For this, she is given warm milk by the kindly man, and wakes up the next morning blind. The blindness is induced by the milk she drinks every night. The kindly man tells her that they would have taken her eyes from her anyway, to help her to learn to use her other senses, but not for half a year. That makes her sad, thinking that even Jon would never know Blind Beth. Sometimes she hurts herself, but does not complain. She misses the company of Brusco and her friends, though. Arya does not give up, and gradually learns to rely on her other senses. These senses include not only the conventional sense, but also her skinchanging abilities. Arya begins to skinchange into a cat who follows her around Braavos.