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The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the second full- scale crash test. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods was used to identify modeling deficiencies, evaluate parameter importance, and propose required model changes. It is shown that the multi-dimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and co-pilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. This approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and test planning guidance. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used. Thiokol performed testing to quantify the relationship between raw material variations and slag generation in solid propellants by testing sub- scale motors cast with propellant containing various combinations of aluminum fuel and ammonium perchlorate (AP) oxidizer particle sizes. The test data were analyzed using statistical methods and an artificial neural network. This paper primarily addresses the neural network results with some comparisons to the statistical results. The neural network showed that the particle sizes of both the aluminum and unground AP have a measurable effect on slag generation. The neural network analysis showed that aluminum particle size is the dominant driver in slag generation, about 40% more influential than AP.

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On Friday I’ll be speaking about The Power of Bad Ideas at 18F, and on Saturday I’ll be leading The Designer is Present at World IA Day DC which will also be streamed. This week we’ll have our final episode of the first series, so stay tuned. If you’ve been enjoying the podcast, you should review it on iTunes. Paul and the Broken Bones, The Jinx: The Life and Deaths Of Robert Durst. It’s the Interaction 15 conference and in addition to my workshop on soft skills today, there’s a ton of interesting talks and a plethora of people to catch up with. It promises to be a unique event and I understand there’s still a few spots left. It was a fun conversation; you can check out a gently edited transcript is here. I’m doing an extended version of the soft skills workshop and I’m also a “theme leader” for the Insight at Scale track. I’m enjoying the collaboration with the speakers and expect a really stellar experience. While getting ready for the day I burned my thumb pretty badly on my hair straightening iron. It was the kind of burn you can soothe for about two seconds before it makes you roll your eyes back and cry out in pain. We’d planned ahead and given ourselves plenty of time that morning, so we had a few minutes to find some burn cream. I ran down to the hotel front desk to see if they had a first aid kit, but they did not.

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Bloomberg's Luke Kawa noted something similar in his weekly newsletter. To wit: China isn’t the only place where a reduction in overseas risk has allowed for a more positive stance, to the detriment of safe debt. The receding of risk in Europe's periphery has also allowed core rates to rise, as investors rotate out of safe assets. Japanese investors in particular may be back in European debt in earnest after a short-term hiatus. The hedging costs certainly point in that direction. Under this lens, it’s no surprise that risk assets have been able to weather rising yields so well. At the same time, a decomposition of Treasury yields doesn’t support that sunny a view. Despite the seemingly positive newsflow, higher yields for reasons we can’t quite put our fingers on might be cause for worry. For reference, here's a chart that shows the rise in 10Y yields along with the rise in an estimate of the term premium from late August through Friday: (Bloomberg) That's what my analyst friend and also what Luke are talking about when they attribute this week's selloff in Treasurys to the term premium trade. Well, go back up and read the excerpts from Credit Suisse's Kasper Bartholdy again. The good news for risk assets (e. . U.

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Ben is a patreon supporter who is known for his photography, going to elementary school (for a time) with Tiny, and paying us to be a guest on the podcast. In this special episode, we rundown this year’s Oscar nominees! Enjoy. But first, we discuss the news regarding the latest Bryan Singer allegations. Later, in Potpourri, we talk about the documentary series QB1, RBG movie On the Basis of Sex, and briefly touch on Tiny’s rewatch of The Shield. Night Shyamalan’s latest film, the trilogy ending Glass. We also discuss the latest regarding the announcement of a new Ghostbusters movie, and chat about faith-based movies, trailers for A Dog’s Way Home, A Dog’s Journey, What Men Want, and Little. We also talk about Mike’s latest milestone in his long-running Movie Night tradition, amateur film criticism, and then we end the episode with a bunch of tangents. It’s our annual episode where Tiny, Mike, and myself share our movie viewing stats for the year, our top ten favorite movies list, and otherwise just nerd out about our year in movies and life. Then, in our potpourri segment, I share my thoughts on the coming of age movie, All Summers End and season 2 of Big Mouth while Tiny shares his thoughts on The Ranch season 5. We also check in with each other on our TV show swap segment LOSTPoint. We also discuss A-List and Letterboxd (as per usual), and Mike’s Ten Years of Shock list. We also discuss the Avengers: Endgame trailer, Kevin Hart’s Oscar debacle, and Tiny and Kyrsten vying for the title of Matt Hurt Movie Theater Companion.