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Here's a deep dive into each: Extreme leverage build-up Morgan Stanley points out that previous comparable cycles have been derailed by steep increases in a measure of US debt to gross domestic product. While the firm doesn't see conditions as dire as they were around the Great Depression or the most recent financial crisis, it notes that deleveraging has stalled. While this situation may be sustainable in the near-term, since interest rates are still locked near zero, that could soon change with the Federal Reserve signaling multiple rate hikes by the end of 2018. Morgan Stanley also notes that interest coverage — or the ability to service debt — has been declining for both US investment-grade and junk debt since 2015. Exuberant sentiment This next driver is one that was briefly addressed in the introduction: investor overconfidence. The thinking here is that when the market gets too cocky, it becomes blind to potential risks and therefore more susceptible to downward shocks. Morgan Stanley doesn't think the market is too exuberant quite yet. While one measure shows that expectations around the economy have gotten overly optimistic, it's still lower than where it was during the last financial crisis or the dotcom bubble. Still, the chart below shows that US consumer confidence is the highest it's been since 2000, including a precipitous surge since the start of the bull market in 2009. Excessive policy tightening When Morgan Stanley says that cycle downturns follow prolonged periods of monetary policy tightening, it speaks from experience. After all, the Federal Reserve persistently hiked interest rates in the periods leading up to both the dotcom bubble and the financial crisis. It's Dezmelda who's been able to make the third season of Poldark so popular and well-regarded in the U. K. and now the season is airing in the US as a part of Masterpiece Theater via PBS.


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Many of these can be related directly to existing motifs in Stith Thompson’s Motif-Index of Folk-Literature, whereas others relate to new motifs which I have developed out of my analysis of collections of erotic folktales. (145) Within legend scholarship, Julia George (1982) noted that “many nonethnographic fiction films seem to exhibit elements of folk narrative, transposed into a visual rather than primarily an oral mode of transmission. The structure of film, as well as the themes, present often parallel traditional storytelling methods” (159). She also noted that the horror film in particular shares “components of structure and function” of urban legends (159). She applied Alan Dundes’s three steps of legend narrative structure to the horror film—interdiction, violation, and consequences— and concluded that “horror stories function to scare and to warn; the same seems to apply to horror films” (176). I discuss George’s article in more detail in chapter 3. Usually the emphasis is on the grisly or strange rather than on the supernatural” (Baughman, quoted in Danielson 1979, 211). Danielson (1979), like Thompson, noted that movies, like television or print media, are a major factor in legend transmission, as well as a reflection of it. But more important, Danielson noted that movies were not folkloric art, although a few dealt with folklore materials. On this latter point, Danielson cited the Japanese film Kwaidan (1964), a cinematic retelling of Japanese ghost stories (the American theatrical release has three stories; the international release available on DVD contains all four). Their annotated bibliography noted a variety of legend themes and motifs, described them, and then noted at least one film reference per citation. Given the overwhelming response to this document, the authors also wrote a column in 1992 in FOAFtale News that takes a specific legend and then annotates all its cinematic appearances. Beyond specific folkloristic genres like myth, folktale, and legend, Tom Burns (1969) attempted to develop a methodology for identifying any expression of folklore in popular film and television texts. When an item of folklore is identified in the mass media, Burns proposed a rather rigid paradigm for distinguishing the item’s validity as folklore.

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